Sealing the Deal

After the second debate, one of the few criticisms I saw of Hillary’s performance was that she didn’t “seal the deal.” I thought that was a bit strange.

At the time, Hillary was given an 82% chance of winning the election at 538, which this year seems to be a bit more conservative with their election chances model. Not conservative as in Fox news, but as in, “anything could still happen.” For example, at the moment, 538 gives Hillary an 87% chance, while the Princeton Election Consortium is at 97% percent.

Currently 538’s “Winding Path” shows Minnesota as the last state that Hillary needs for 270. This is as close to a statistical lock as you can get three weeks out.

And yet another pundit today said that Hillary did not “seal the deal” last night. WTF?

The only thing that can stop Hillary now is some kind of truly horrible revelation. The biggest October Surprise in history. And of course no debate performance could possibly stop that. And Nate Silver just said the same thing while I was writing this.

In truth, Hillary “sealed the deal” in the first debate. At the time of the first debate, her win probability was a mere 55% on 538. By October 1 it was 67% and it continued straight up until the 87% today. There is barely a blip for the Billy Bush Bus Tapes.

In the first debate the country had a chance to directly compare Trump and Hillary. She killed and the tide of the election turned big time. The trend has not slowed since.

Hillary sealed the deal. Trump has done nothing but stumble and fumble since getting his butt kicked in the first one.

The coup de grace will be the Democratic ground game in the last three weeks. THAT is what will really seal the deal.

 

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